Aim: The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) has been validated for use with adolescents to screen their harmful alcohol consumption. How well AUDIT or its derivative consumption version AUDIT-C predicts the development of problematic alcohol use among adolescents remains unknown. The aim of our study was to examine the predictive capacity of AUDIT and AUDIT-C among adolescents in a one-year follow-up.

Methods: Finnish adolescents (N = 337) were examined at baseline with AUDIT and one year later with the Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children - Present and Lifetime version (KSADS-PL) interview to assess alcohol problem use. Test characteristics and regression models were analyzed in predicting alcohol problem use.

Results: The sensitivity of AUDIT (cut-off >= 5) was 0.809 and specificity 0.621 in predicting alcohol problem use among adolescents one year later. The positive test posterior probability was 0.51. For those who screened negative at baseline, the positive test posterior probability was 0.13. With AUDIT-C (cut-off =3), the posterior probabilities were 0.47 and 0.12, respectively (sensitivity 0.855, specificity 0.529). The odds ratio was 6.95 for those screening positive with AUDIT and 6.59 with AUDIT-C at baseline to have alcohol problem use one year later.

Conclusions: AUDIT has utility in screening youth at risk for developing alcohol problem use. It has significant predictive capacity in detecting risk especially among adolescents with depression.