• Since Russia started its aggression against Ukraine in 2014, EU member states have lacked the
political will to frmly contest Russia’s imperialism in the shared neighbourhood. Tis was
concretized in the rejection of Ukraine’s EU path and the failure to build Ukraine’s military
capabilities before 2022.
• Te EU’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion has been more successful than expected
considering its limited capabilities and some past failures of international security assistance.
• Te West is, however, failing to equip Ukraine to win the war. Tis paradox of insufcient
aid leaves Ukraine in limbo, whereby it is enabled to continue the defence efort but without
adequate means to succeed.
• In theory, the EU backs Ukraine’s strategy of non-negotiation with Russia, but the limited
military support is pushing Kyiv towards peace talks. EU capitals continue to disagree over
the extent to which Russia’s imperialist policies need to be suppressed, and whether small
concessions could help to end the war in Europe.
• Even in the scenario where Ukraine emerges from the war as a truly sovereign state, the risk
of future Russian interference, combined with Ukraine’s particular vulnerabilities and the
likely challenges of post-war reconstruction, cast a shadow over its immediate future.