A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Emissions, concentrations, & temperature: A time series analysis
Tekijät: Kaufmann Robert K., Kauppi Heikki, Stock James H.
Kustantaja: Springer
Julkaisuvuosi: 2006
Journal: Climatic Change
Tietokannassa oleva lehden nimi: CLIMATIC CHANGE
Lehden akronyymi: CLIMATIC CHANGE
Vuosikerta: 77
Aloitussivu: 249
Lopetussivu: 278
Sivujen määrä: 30
ISSN: 0165-0009
eISSN: 1573-1480
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9062-1
Tiivistelmä
We use recent advances in time series econometrics to estimate the relation among emissions of CO(2) and CH(4), the concentration of these gases, and global surface temperature. These models are estimated and specified to answer two questions; (1) does human activity affect global surface temperature and; (2) does global surface temperature affect the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and/or methane. Regression results provide direct evidence for a statistically meaningful relation between radiative forcing and global surface temperature. A simple model based on these results indicates that greenhouse gases and anthropogenic sulfur emissions are largely responsible for the change in temperature over the last 130 years. The regression results also indicate that increases in surface temperature since 1870 have changed the flow of carbon dioxide to and from the atmosphere in a way that increases its atmospheric concentration. Finally, the regression results for methane hint that higher temperatures may increase its atmospheric concentration, but this effect is not estimated precisely.
We use recent advances in time series econometrics to estimate the relation among emissions of CO(2) and CH(4), the concentration of these gases, and global surface temperature. These models are estimated and specified to answer two questions; (1) does human activity affect global surface temperature and; (2) does global surface temperature affect the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and/or methane. Regression results provide direct evidence for a statistically meaningful relation between radiative forcing and global surface temperature. A simple model based on these results indicates that greenhouse gases and anthropogenic sulfur emissions are largely responsible for the change in temperature over the last 130 years. The regression results also indicate that increases in surface temperature since 1870 have changed the flow of carbon dioxide to and from the atmosphere in a way that increases its atmospheric concentration. Finally, the regression results for methane hint that higher temperatures may increase its atmospheric concentration, but this effect is not estimated precisely.
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