Socio-economic Impacts-Forestry and Agriculture

: Krug J, Eriksson H, Heidecke C, Kellomaki S, Kohl M, Lindner M, Saikkonen K

: The BACC II Author Team

Publisher: SPRINGER-VERLAG NEW YORK, MS INGRID CUNNINGHAM, 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 USA

: 2015

: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin

: SECOND ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE BALTIC SEA BASIN

: REG CLIM STUD

: 399

: 409

: 11

: 978-3-319-16005-4

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_21

Climate change affects the vulnerability and productivity of forestry and agricultural systems, predominantly by changes in precipitation and temperature patterns. Indirect impacts are altered risk of damage, for example, by longer periods of drought stress and other biotic and abiotic disturbances. While southern and eastern parts of the Baltic Sea basin are likely to experience a net impact of climate change that is negative for production, northern and western regions are likely to experience a general increase in production. As a result, land-use potentials will change and will foster adaptation and mitigation measures. In the northern region, forest management adaptation may lead to substantial yield increases, while in the south management, adaptation may be required to counter deteriorating conditions. Comparable conclusions can be drawn for agricultural management: if adaptation potentials are fully exploited, substantial yield increases can be expected for certain crop species. In the southern areas and for certain species, deteriorating conditions and possibly increasing climatic variability are projected. Both climate change impacts and human responses will affect socio-economic conditions in the Baltic Sea basin.