Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical
forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social,
cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the
prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and
extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also
new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding
of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are
needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest
policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of
such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying
local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years
in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper
discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence
farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in
the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The
material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival
maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial
photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and
spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover,
forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six
distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these
illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed
forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns,
but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming
between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use
turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched
from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the
long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially
fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain
dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most
dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and
land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape
change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical
information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked,
can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning
and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the
following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1)
establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the
local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for
permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing
management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and
(3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have
traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing
alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.