A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies
Tekijät: Koivisto Raija, Wessberg Nina, Eerola Annele, Ahlqvist Toni, Kivisaari Sirkku, Myllyoja Jouko, Halonen Minna
Julkaisuvuosi: 2009
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Vuosikerta: 76
Aloitussivu: 1163
Lopetussivu: 1176
DOI: https://doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.07.012
This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.