A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Wind power in Finland up to the year 2025 - 'soft' scenarios based on expert views
Authors: Varho Vilja, Tapio Petri
Publisher: Elsevier (Commercial Publisher)
Publication year: 2005
Journal: Energy Policy
Journal name in source: ENERGY POLICY
Journal acronym: ENERG POLICY
Volume: 33
Issue: 15
First page : 1930
Last page: 1947
Number of pages: 18
ISSN: 0301-4215
eISSN: 1873-6777
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.03.006(external)
Abstract
In this article we present a method of constructing 'soft' scenarios applied to the wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures using a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order of magnitude of 10. The growth rate of electricity consumption slows down in all scenarios. Qualitative arguments varied even within clusters, with wind power policy emerging as the main dividing factor. The differences revealed diverse values and political objectives, as well as great uncertainties in assumptions about future developments. These influence wind power policy and were also believed to have contributed to the slow development of wind power in Finland. Re-thinking of the Finnish wind power policy is recommended. The 'soft' scenario method is considered valuable in finding diverse views, constructing transparent scenarios and assisting energy policy making. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
In this article we present a method of constructing 'soft' scenarios applied to the wind power development in Finland up to the year 2025. We asked 14 experts to describe probable and preferable futures using a quantitative questionnaire and qualitative interviews. Wind power production grows in all scenarios but there were differences in the order of magnitude of 10. The growth rate of electricity consumption slows down in all scenarios. Qualitative arguments varied even within clusters, with wind power policy emerging as the main dividing factor. The differences revealed diverse values and political objectives, as well as great uncertainties in assumptions about future developments. These influence wind power policy and were also believed to have contributed to the slow development of wind power in Finland. Re-thinking of the Finnish wind power policy is recommended. The 'soft' scenario method is considered valuable in finding diverse views, constructing transparent scenarios and assisting energy policy making. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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