A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä
Towards long-term foresight for transport: envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100
Tekijät: Auvinen Heidi, Tuominen Anu, Ahlqvist Toni
Julkaisuvuosi: 2012
Journal: Foresight
Vuosikerta: 14
Numero: 2
Aloitussivu: 191
Lopetussivu: 206
DOI: https://doi.org/DOI 10.1108/14636681211239746
Purpose – This paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long-term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test vision of the Finnish transport system in 2100.
Design/methodology/approach – The vision building process combines four futures methods that support the long-term foresight approach: transition management, PESTE analysis, the futures table and the Delphi method. The process is validated with a test vision.
Findings – A three-step vision building process for long-term transport system visions is structured. The three consecutive steps of the process are environmental scanning, constructing futures tables and visions, and describing visions. In addition, a demonstrative test vision is created to describe a possible future transport system in 2100 in a metropolitan Finland. The successful application of the developed method supports further work on creating full-scale strategy-driven visions.
Originality/value – Futures studies analyzing transport systems and infrastructures tend to focus on short- to medium-term perspectives. This paper presents a unique method for constructing alternative long-term visions as far as 50 to 100 years into the future.