A1 Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä lehdessä

Towards long-term foresight for transport: envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100




TekijätAuvinen Heidi, Tuominen Anu, Ahlqvist Toni

Julkaisuvuosi2012

JournalForesight

Vuosikerta14

Numero2

Aloitussivu191

Lopetussivu206

DOIhttps://doi.org/DOI 10.1108/14636681211239746


Tiivistelmä

Purpose – This paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long-term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test vision of the Finnish transport system in 2100.

Design/methodology/approach – The vision building process combines four futures methods that support the long-term foresight approach: transition management, PESTE analysis, the futures table and the Delphi method. The process is validated with a test vision.

Findings – A three-step vision building process for long-term transport system visions is structured. The three consecutive steps of the process are environmental scanning, constructing futures tables and visions, and describing visions. In addition, a demonstrative test vision is created to describe a possible future transport system in 2100 in a metropolitan Finland. The successful application of the developed method supports further work on creating full-scale strategy-driven visions.

Originality/value – Futures studies analyzing transport systems and infrastructures tend to focus on short- to medium-term perspectives. This paper presents a unique method for constructing alternative long-term visions as far as 50 to 100 years into the future.



Last updated on 2024-26-11 at 14:45