A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal
Combining the qualitative and quantitative with the Q2 scenario technique – The case of transport and climate
Subtitle: The case of transport and climate
Authors: Varho Vilja, Tapio Petri
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Publication year: 2013
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Journal name in source: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
Journal acronym: TECHNOL FORECAST SOC
Volume: 80
Issue: 4
First page : 611
Last page: 630
Number of pages: 20
ISSN: 0040-1625
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.004
Abstract
Two recent trends in scenario making are the starting point of this study: the combination of qualitative and quantitative materials, and inclusion of many kinds of experts. We propose a new scenario technique Q(2) that answers to these calls, and describe it step-by-step. Q(2) scenarios consist of Delphi, cluster analysis of numerical material, qualitative content analysis of interviews, and a futures table. Most of the required tools and methods are well documented and commonly used, but their combination is original, particularly the explorative and disaggregative way both types of material are analysed and compressed into a futures table and further developed into scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology through a case: the growing Finnish transport sector that faces severe pressure to cut CO2 emissions. Finnish experts were asked about their views of the future up to 2050, using an interactive and user-friendly questionnaire, and interviews. An expertise matrix was formed in order to achieve a comprehensive coverage in terms of key expertise, education, organisation, age, and gender. By widening the concept of expertise, it is possible to get a large variety of viewpoints. The resulting scenarios reveal that reaching the CO2 targets will require a palette of technical, infrastructural, and behavioural changes. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Two recent trends in scenario making are the starting point of this study: the combination of qualitative and quantitative materials, and inclusion of many kinds of experts. We propose a new scenario technique Q(2) that answers to these calls, and describe it step-by-step. Q(2) scenarios consist of Delphi, cluster analysis of numerical material, qualitative content analysis of interviews, and a futures table. Most of the required tools and methods are well documented and commonly used, but their combination is original, particularly the explorative and disaggregative way both types of material are analysed and compressed into a futures table and further developed into scenarios. We demonstrate the methodology through a case: the growing Finnish transport sector that faces severe pressure to cut CO2 emissions. Finnish experts were asked about their views of the future up to 2050, using an interactive and user-friendly questionnaire, and interviews. An expertise matrix was formed in order to achieve a comprehensive coverage in terms of key expertise, education, organisation, age, and gender. By widening the concept of expertise, it is possible to get a large variety of viewpoints. The resulting scenarios reveal that reaching the CO2 targets will require a palette of technical, infrastructural, and behavioural changes. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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