D3 Article in a professional conference publication
Baltic Sea pelagial salinity as controlled by NAO, runoff and windiness - a time series study using transfer functions
Authors: Jari Hänninen
Conference name: ICES Symposium - Hydrobiological variability in the ICES area, 1990-1999
Publication year: 2001
Series title: International Council for Exploration of the Sea
DOI: https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.1174.7287
Since the last larger inflow in 1993 salinity in the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland did increase, indeed in the way expected. On the contrary, salinity in the relatively isolated Gulf of Bothnia stayed in low level. Simultaneously, runoff time series show a variance increased generally from south to north. We wanted to test the idea that primarily both the runoff and inflows are controlled by meteorological changes over the North Atlantic but they still show a different local response in various horizontal parts of the Baltic Sea.This is hypothetically due to different size of runoff areas, and consequently differen time lags of runoff in a north-south comparison. We also modelled time series of winds and salinity using dynamoic regressions in a two layer (above and subthermocline) approach. The reason to start this study was due to a curious lack of concerted action in the time series of salinity from different depths in the Baltic Proper. The starting point was the observation that, for a period of 20 years, or so, from the early 1960's up to late 1970's, the salinity above the thermocline in the Baltic Proper was more or less stable while it definitely increased in the surface water. We developed a model where the effect of winds would explain this discrepancy.