Background: Previous data on the association of thyroid function with total mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and sudden cardiac death (SCD) are conflicting or limited. We investigated associations of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) with these outcomes in a nationwide population-based prospective cohort study.

Methods: We examined 5211 participants representative of the Finnish population aged ≥30 years in 2000-2001 and followed them for a median of 13.2 years. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for baseline age, gender, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, we assessed the associations of continuous baseline TSH and TSH categories (low [<0.4 mU/L], reference range [0.4-3.4 mU/L] and high [>3.4 mU/L]) with incident total mortality, SCD, coronary heart disease events, stroke, CVD, major adverse cardiac events and atrial fibrillation.

Results: High TSH at baseline was related to a greater risk of total mortality (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.02-1.76) and SCD (HR 2.28, 95% CI 1.13-4.60) compared with TSH within the reference range. High TSH was not associated with the other outcomes (P ≥ .51), whereas low TSH was not associated with any of the outcomes (P ≥ .09). TSH at baseline over the full range did not have a linear relation with any of the outcomes (P ≥ .17). TSH showed a U-shaped association with total mortality after a restricted cubic spline transformation (P = .01).

Conclusions: Thyroid function abnormalities could be linked with higher risks of total mortality and SCD. Large-scale randomized studies are needed for evidence-based recommendations regarding treatment of mild thyroid failure.