Competing-Risks Regression Models in Analysis of Biomarkers as Predictors of High-risk Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection Outcomes and Incident CIN in the LAMS Cohort - UTU Research Portal

A1 Refereed original research article in a scientific journal

Competing-Risks Regression Models in Analysis of Biomarkers as Predictors of High-risk Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection Outcomes and Incident CIN in the LAMS Cohort

Authors: Syrjanen S, Longhato A, Sarian LO, Naud P, Derchain S, Rottelli-Martins C, Tatti S, Branca M, Erzen M, Hammes LS, Matos J, Gontijo R, Braganca J, Arlindo FC, Maeda MYS, Costa S, Syrjanen K

Publisher: LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS

Publication year: 2013

Journal: International Journal of Gynecologic Pathology

Journal name in source: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GYNECOLOGICAL PATHOLOGY

Journal acronym: INT J GYNECOL PATHOL

Number in series: 4

Volume: 32

Issue: 4

First page : 406

Last page: 415

Number of pages: 10

ISSN: 0277-1691

eISSN: 1538-7151

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/PGP.0b013e31826739b1

Abstract

To assess the prediction potential of a 5-biomarker panel for detecting high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infections and/or cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) progression. Five biomarkers, lipocalin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-2, p300, interleukin-10, and stratifin, were assessed in cervical biopsies from 225 women of the Latin American Screening Study. Competing-risks regression models were constructed to assess their predictive power for (i) HR-HPV outcomes (negative, transient, or persistent infection) and (ii) CIN outcomes (no progression, incident CIN1, CIN2, or CIN3). p300, LCN2, stratifin were significantly associated with prevalent HR-HPV but lost their significance in multivariate analysis. In the multivariate model, only p300 was an independent predictor of CIN3 (odds ratio=2.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-6.61; P=0.039). In univariate competing-risks regression, lipocalin predicted permanent HR-HPV-negative status, but in the multivariate model, IL-10 emerged as a independent predictor of HPV-negative status (subhazard ratio=4.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.81-9.01; P=0.001). The clinical value of the panel in predicting longitudinal outcomes of HR-HPV infection and/or incident CIN is limited.