Optimal observation times for multi-state Markov models - applications to pneumococcal colonisation studies




Juha Mehtälä, Kari Auranen, Sagita Kulathinal

PublisherWiley

2015

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C

64

3

451

468

18

0035-9254

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12084



Applications to finite state Markov models are numerous and the problem of estimating transition rates of such processes has been considered in many fields of science. Because the processes cannot always be followed in continuous time, the investigation often confront the question of when to measure the state of the process. The estimation of transition rates then needs to be based on a sequence of discrete time data, and the variance and estimability of the estimators greatly depend on the time spacings between consecutive observations. We study optimal time spacings of discrete time observations to estimate the transition rates of a time homogeneous multistate Markov process. For comparative studies, optimal time spacings to estimate rate ratios are considered. Optimality criteria are formulated through the minimization of the variance of the parameter estimators of interest and are investigated assuming a stationary initial distribution. For practical purposes, we propose a simple approximation for the optimal time spacing and study the limits for its applicability. The work is motivated by studies of colonization with Streptococcus pneumoniae.




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