Vertaisarvioitu alkuperäisartikkeli tai data-artikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä (A1)
Accuracy of forecasting in a Nordic paper mill's supply chain: A case study
Julkaisun tekijät: Esa Hämäläinen, Ulla Tapaninen
Kustantaja: Routledge
Paikka: Norge
Julkaisuvuosi: 2011
Journal: Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift / Norwegian Journal of Geography
Numero sarjassa: 2
Volyymi: 65
Julkaisunumero: 2
Aloitussivu: 104
Lopetussivun numero: 113
Sivujen määrä: 10
ISSN: 0029-1951
eISSN: 0029-1951
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2011.574321
The article compares the accuracy of forecasted and actual supply chain cost and price factors in a Nordic paper mill’s sales to
customers in two large European countries. Empirical longitudinal research data covering the years between 2002 and 2008 were
obtained from a large integrated Finnish paper mill, and consisted of sales volumes, paper prices, variable costs, and transport costs.
It was expected that the mill would be able to forecast demand, prices and costs accurately, but the empirical findings showed that
the forecasts for paper price, demand, and cost varied from one market to another and were not highly accurate. In addition, the
forecasting of gross margins seemed to be very inexact. It is concluded that there is a need for more reliable forecasting methods in
the paper industry to anticipate economic development as paper demand and costs change.