Abstract: The accuracy of anticipating is an important matter in a paper mill’s

supply chain process. This study focuses on exploring with correlation analysis

the differences between anticipatory and actual paper demand, price and cost

variables regarding a Nordic paper mill. The empirical mill data includes

anticipated and actual economic variables from the mill to the customers in

fifteen European countries during 2002–2008, covering 90% of the mill’s sales.

This kind of anticipatory-actual comparison has been examined scantily. The

empirical findings show that forecasting on the mill level has been quite

accurate, but between different markets there is much variation. The mill has

not succeeded in estimating gross margins in many markets. This study states

that a supply chain examination is worth integrating with the spatial context in

order to yield valid results. Each market needs specific actions to be taken to

ensure that anticipating is as accurate as possible.