A1 Journal article – refereed
Accuracy of forecasting in a Nordic paper mill's supply chain: A case study

List of Authors: Esa Hämäläinen, Ulla Tapaninen
Publisher: Routledge
Place: Norge
Publication year: 2011
Journal: Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift / Norwegian Journal of Geography
Number in series: 2
Volume number: 65
Issue number: 2
Number of pages: 10
ISSN: 0029-1951
eISSN: 0029-1951


The article compares the accuracy of forecasted and actual supply chain cost and price factors in a Nordic paper mill’s sales to

customers in two large European countries. Empirical longitudinal research data covering the years between 2002 and 2008 were

obtained from a large integrated Finnish paper mill, and consisted of sales volumes, paper prices, variable costs, and transport costs.

It was expected that the mill would be able to forecast demand, prices and costs accurately, but the empirical findings showed that

the forecasts for paper price, demand, and cost varied from one market to another and were not highly accurate. In addition, the

forecasting of gross margins seemed to be very inexact. It is concluded that there is a need for more reliable forecasting methods in

the paper industry to anticipate economic development as paper demand and costs change.

Last updated on 2019-21-08 at 22:56